Flat – that’s the one word to describe the real estate market in Trent Hills.
That boring term covers current sales and prices and the prediction for at least the next year or so.
Median house prices in Trent Hills were up $5,000, or 1 per cent in October from September to $545,000, but were down $10,000, or 2 per cent year-over- year from $555,000.
Last month, 21 homes sold in Trent Hills, one condo townhouse and 20 detached units, the same number as a year ago when all the sales were detached homes.
Homes that sold had been on the market an average of 60 days in October, up from 43 days a year ago. The condo townhouse sold for $295,000 in just 10 days.
So far this year, 179 homes have sold for a median price of $565,000, compared with 207 sales and a median price of $561,000 in 2025.
In all of Northumberland county, 124 homes sold in October, a 5 per cent increase from September but a 9.5 per cent drop from October 2025. The median selling price was $607,000, down from $630,000 in September and down 6.6 per cent from $650,000 a year ago.
“Ontario’s housing market is in the midst of a striking contradiction,” says Kari Norman, Senior Economist at Desjardins Group. “Buyers have more choice, selling prices are lower than they were a few years ago, household incomes have risen and affordability has improved from recent lows. For tenants, vacancy rates have increased across all apartment sizes, and asking rents in major cities are easing.
“But the housing market is hardly healthy,” Norman wrote in a recent report. “Home sales remain weak, and housing starts have fallen sharply.”
Ontario home sales and housing starts should rise in 2027, but elevated borrowing costs and uneven regional conditions will likely limit the recovery, she predicts. Sales and construction should improve from exceptionally weak 2026 levels, but prices will rise an average of only 2.4 per cent as the collapse of the condo market in Toronto drags the sector down.
We can see all these factors at play here in Trent Hills. Prices have dropped and sales remain stable, and there is little activity in the new home market as developers wait for the return of buyers before they start construction.
“October brought an increase in home sales across much of our region, even as average selling prices continued to decline in several markets,” said Christine Riley, president of the Central Lakes Association of Realtors. “This tells us that buyers are still active, but affordability and pricing remain important considerations. With the Bank of Canada’s recent interest rate increase, borrowing costs will continue to be a key factor for those looking to enter the housing market or make their next move.”
Another rate hike is unlikely in the short term, one economist predicts.
“While further rate increases remain possible, the bank signaled that it would proceed carefully given considerable uncertainty surrounding both the inflation and growth outlooks and suggest that the bar is high for additional tightening,” says Alan Chow, Business Economist with Central 1 Credit Union.
In case you are wondering, yes, my choice to quote economists from credit unions is deliberate. I worked in that sector for a decade, and I think their focus is on economic issues that affect regular people, not big business, so their comments are more relevant to us.
County adds backyard unit
Northumberland County continues work on a home on Kent Street in Campbellford. It has renovated two apartments and added a two-storey backyard modular unit that will add two more.
The $1.1 million project will be managed by the Northumberland County Housing Corporation. Work started last year and was slated to be ready for residents this year, but based on appearances, that seems unlikely. I asked the county for an update but didn’t hear back.
The duplex at 129 Kent Street was purchased almost two years ago for $460,000 and $75,000 was budgeted for renovations. The modular unit will cost about $600,000.