Growth in Trent Hills to be slow and steady for next 30 years
County seeks feedback on its plans to hit provincial development targets
The power of compound growth is demonstrated in Northumberland County’s projections for Trent Hills. A report shows our population only growing about 1 per cent a year, but that adds up to a 21 per cent jump over the next 27 years.
Those numbers are part of the county’s efforts to overhaul its official plan and bring it in line with the province’s latest development instructions. They show the population of Trent Hills will rise about 1 per cent a year reaching 16,600 by 2051, up from 13,700 in 2021.
But that means Trent Hills will lag the development in the southern part of the county. Ontario expects the county to reach 122,000 residents by 2051, up 34.5 per cent from 90,700 in 2021. More than half of the growth will occur in Cobourg at 32,100, up 54 per cent from 20,800, and Port Hope at 25,900, up 48 per cent from 17,500.
To reach these numbers the county is planning to expand the residential area of Port Hope. It also is expanding residential area in Codrington to permit development there.
One problem for Trent Hills, the county notes, is the lack of employment area for new businesses. It suggests that Campbellford needs an additional 27 hectares (66 acres) of land zoned for jobs, while Hastings requires 5 hectares (12 acres).
The Municipality of Trent Hills is also going through the process of bringing its official plan into line with the Ford government’s latest projections. It had expected to have a draft plan ready in March for public consultation.
You can read details of Northumberland’s revamp on its Northumberland Next website.
In coming weeks, the county is seeking feedback on its updated development maps and long-term policies. You can attend one of two consultation sessions to learn more, ask questions and provide feedback:
A drop-in open house with two scheduled 15-minute presentations from county staff and consultants, followed by a question & answer period. Thursday, May 23 from 4-7 p.m. at the county building, 600 William Street, Cobourg.
A hybrid in-person or online meeting with a 15-minute presentation on Wednesday, June 5 at 1 p.m. in the Council Chambers, 555 Courthouse Road, Cobourg or watch the live stream at Northumberland.ca/Council
The county will also be accepting feedback by email until July 12 at campbelld@northumberland.ca.
The executive summary of the growth management plan says we will have to step up the pace of home construction in the county to meet the growing housing needs. The county will need about 500 new housing units per year, which is 23 per cent more than the average of 405 that were built from 2001-21.
The report also notes that while the population base will grow, it will continue to get older.
“Between 2016 and 2051, the 75+ age group is forecast to represent the fastest growing population age group, with an average annual population growth rate of 2.8%,” says the report by Watson & Associates Economics Ltd.
“Strong population growth in the 75+ age group is anticipated to place increasing demand on medium- and high-density forms, including seniors’ housing and affordable housing options,” it warns.
Over the next 30 years the county is expected to become more urbanized. In 2016, about 53 per cent of county residents lived in urban areas. That’s forecast to reach 62 per cent by 2051.