Conservatives projected to hold our riding

Federal election call expected in days as shift to Liberals continues here and nationally

Philip Lawrence, John Goheen, and Lisa Bradburn.

With a federal election call expected on Sunday, I thought I’d look at the two main candidates who will be seeking your vote in coming weeks and what the experts are predicting.

Current MP Philip Lawrence, first elected in 2019, is running again for the Conservatives. He won 39 per cent of the vote in 2019 and 44 per cent in 2021.

The Liberal candidate is John Goheen, who is the principal at Hillcrest Public School in Campbellford. The Liberals received 37 per cent of the vote in 2019 and 34 per cent in 2021.

The election projection site 338Canada.com currently says there is a 99 per cent chance our riding will remain Conservative. The current projection shows a 49 to 35 per cent lead for the Tories, with the NDP at 8 per cent.

But, ahh, there are always buts in politics, just ask Pierre Poilievre who a few weeks back was coasting toward a coronation. Just like most everywhere across the country, since Justin Trudeau stepped down as Prime Minister and especially since Mark Carney took over, the Liberals have been trending up in our riding too. They are 14 points behind, but the trend is their friend. I’ll provide updates as we get closer to election day.

The first thing to know is that we have a newish riding with a new name, switching from Northumberland-Peterborough South. We’re now in Northumberland Clarke, which includes all of Northumberland County and extends west toward Clarington. It has a population of 100,000, which includes 90,000 from our county.

Goheen was born in Toronto but grew up in Cobourg and Prince Edward County, graduating from East Northumberland Secondary School in Brighton. He has a BA from Trent University, a Bachelor of Education with from Western University and a Master of Education from the University of Toronto/Ontario Institute for Studies in Education.

Goheen and his wife, Dani, and live in the Grafton area with three sons—Maxx (14), Knox (11), and Pax (8). (As a devoted Scrabble player, I’m always looking for words that include an X, pity I can’t use names.)

In recent years, Goheen has been principal at several schools across the county including Percy Centennial in Warkworth, Brighton Public School, Baltimore Public School, and Beatrice Strong Public School in Port Hope.

Lawrence has a law degree from Osgoode Hall Law School and an MBA from the Schulich School of Business. He practised tax law before entering financial services, where he spent more than 10 years.

He and his wife, Natasha, live on a small farm near Orono with their two children, Margaret and James.

If you’re wondering what 338Canada.com is projecting nationally, it’s a Liberal majority with 178 seats, (172 needed for a majority), the Conservatives with 130, New Democrats 8, and the Bloq Quebecois 25.

FYI, 338Canada.com does not do its own polling, the site aggregates all the various polls done by other groups and applies its own modelling system to project likely seat outcomes. If you’re interested in data analysis, you can read more on its website.

In case you’re wondering, the NDP doesn’t currently have a candidate in the riding.

Lisa Bradburn is running for the People’s Party of Canada. She’s a psychotherapist and local resident.

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